Friday, January 27, 2012

U.S. growth quickens, but speed bumps ahead

By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON | Fri Jan 27, 2012 12:53pm EST
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years in the fourth quarter of 2011, but a strong rebuilding of stocks by businesses and a slower pace of business spending hinted at softer growth early this year.

U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, a sharp acceleration from the 1.8 percent clip of the prior three months and the quickest pace since the second quarter of 2010.

It was, however, a touch below economists expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3 percent rate, and two-thirds of rise in output was due to the build-up in business inventories.

Soft underlying demand and a sharp slowing in core inflation supported the Federal Reserve's decision to keep in place an ultra easy monetary policy to nurse the recovery.

"We do not expect growth to accelerate meaningfully from its current pace," said Michelle Girard, a senior economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut. She said Fed officials would focused on slack in the economy.

Stocks on Wall Street opened lower as investors worried about the composition of growth, while Treasury debt prices were little changed. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.

INVENTORIES REBOUND

The economy in the fourth quarter got a temporary boost from the rebuilding of business inventories, which logged the biggest increase since the third quarter of 2010. The buildup followed a third quarter decline that was the first since late 2009.

Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a tepid 0.8 percent rate, a sharp step-down from the prior period's 3.2 percent pace and a sign of weak domestic demand.

The robust stock accumulation suggests the recovery will lose a step in early 2012 as businesses are unlikely to keep building inventories at the same rate.

Growth in business spending on capital goods was the slowest since 2009, a sign the debt crisis in Europe was starting to take its toll and another hint of weakness ahead.

The Fed on Wednesday said it expected to keep interest rates at rock bottom levels at least through late 2014, and Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank was mulling further asset purchases to speed the recovery.

The central bank warned the economy still faced big risks, a suggestion the euro zone debt crisis could still hit hard.

"We're still repairing the damage done by the financial crisis. On top of that we face a more challenging world. We have a lot of challenges ahead in the United States," U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Prospects of sluggish growth could hurt President Barack Obama's chances of re-election in November.

The economy grew 1.7 percent in 2011 after expanding 3 percent the prior year, and the unemployment stood at a still-high 8.5 percent in December.

AUTOS PROP UP CONSUMER SPENDING

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, stepped up to a 2 percent rate from the third-quarter's 1.7 percent pace - largely driven by pent-up demand for motor vehicles.

The Japanese earthquake and tsunami had disrupted supplies early last year, leaving showrooms bereft of popular models.

Consumers also benefited from a moderation in inflation.

A price index for personal spending rose at a 0.7 percent rate in the fourth-quarter, the slowest increase in 1-1/2 years, after rising at a 2.3 percent pace in the July-September period.

A core inflation measure, which strips out food and energy costs, increased at a 1.1 percent rate after rising 2.1 percent in the third quarter. The slowdown could concern the Fed, which wants the measure closer to their 2 percent inflation target.

"Clearly, much work remains to achieve the Fed's dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability," New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley told reporters.

SLUGGISH INCOME GROWTH

High unemployment has led to sluggish income growth, which in turn has prompted households to tap savings and credit cards to fund their purchases.

Still, spending is unlikely to be a drag on growth, given that consumer sentiment is on the mend, as indicated by another report on Friday.

"Though the unemployment rate has improved, the jobs market remains a major challenge. Part of the decline in the unemployment rate is due to the fact that ... people have stopped looking for work," said Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago.

"The high level of people out of the workforce and underemployed people show there isn't really much income generation to contribute to a better spending pattern."

A sustained growth pace of at least 3 percent would likely be needed to make noticeable headway in absorbing the unemployed and those who have given up the search for work.

Business spending grew at a sluggish 1.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter, pulling back sharply from the third-quarter's 15.7 percent pace.

Though exports held up, an increase in imports left a trade gap that chipped growth.

Unseasonably mild winter weather helped home construction post its fastest growth pace since the second quarter of 2010, with much of the increase going to meet rising demand for rental apartments.

Government spending shrank for a fifth consecutive quarter, reflecting a large decline in defense and still weak state and local government outlays. A bounceback could support growth at the start of the year.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman and Tim Ahmann)



The Iron Eagle Realty Team's mission is to assist you, our client, in the sale and acquisition of real estate properties in the state of Idaho, specifically the Boise Idaho Real Estate Market. Whether you are buying or selling a home, whether it is a foreclosure, short sale or equity property, we handle our customers and clients with empathy and honest truths so they can make informed decisions as they advance in the process of buying and selling real estate that meet specific needs.

PS: We've Helped More Buyers and Sellers than 99.8% of any Local Realtor

Click Here to Search 24/7 for The Best Real Estate Deals in Boise!
Click Here to Download Our Free "Selling Your Home" Pre-Listing Plan! 
Click Here to Pre-Qualify for a Loan Online!

IERT logo
Regards, Michael Hon, REALTOR®
CEO, The Iron Eagle Realty Team
Associate Broker, Silvercreek Realty Group
Certified Short Sale Specialist®
Investment Property Consultant
Direct: 208.919.0458 Office: 208.939.9033 Fax: 208.514.1422
www.IronEagleRE.com Michael.Hon@IronEagleRE.com

Monday, January 23, 2012

Report: Idaho Workers Missing out on $11,000 a Year

Reposted from Public News Service

January 16, 2012

BOISE, Idaho - Idaho's economy is still far from being healthy, and chronic low wages are part of the problem. Research on the topic is being discussed today at the "Kitchen Table Economics" forum in Boise.

Retired University of Idaho economics professor Stephen Cooke has found that Idahoans earn about $11,000 less per year than the national average, and he says the state should focus on ways to change that, in order to grow the economy.

"What I'm suggesting for a remedy is that, in order to become a high-skilled economy, we need to make investments in research and development, education and infrastructure."

Cooke says higher wages mean more disposable income and more tax revenue, and yet Idaho has been focused on policies that attract low-wage, low-skill jobs, instead of recruiting high-paying jobs.

He says early legislative discussion about cutting taxes to improve the state's economy ignores the underlying problem of the low-skill, low-wage issue, which he calls a trap Idaho has fallen into.

"There's no indication that cutting taxes improves economic development, and in fact just the opposite is true."

He says Idaho's declining job sectors include professional, scientific and technical services, as well as management of companies and enterprises, and mining.

"Kitchen Table Economics" will be held from 6-8 p.m. today in the State Capitol Auditorium. Dr. Cooke will speak at the event.

Deb Courson Smith, Public News Service - ID

The Iron Eagle Realty Team's mission is to assist you, our client, in the sale and acquisition of real estate properties in the state of Idaho, specifically the Boise Idaho Real Estate Market. Whether you are buying or selling a home, whether it is a foreclosure, short sale or equity property, we handle our customers and clients with empathy and honest truths so they can make informed decisions as they advance in the process of buying and selling real estate that meet specific needs.

PS: We've Helped More Buyers and Sellers than 99.8% of any Local Realtor

Click Here to Search 24/7 for The Best Real Estate Deals in Boise!
Click Here to Download Our Free "Selling Your Home" Pre-Listing Plan! 
Click Here to Pre-Qualify for a Loan Online!

IERT logo
Regards, Michael Hon, REALTOR®
CEO, The Iron Eagle Realty Team
Associate Broker, Silvercreek Realty Group
Certified Short Sale Specialist®
Investment Property Consultant
Direct: 208.919.0458 Office: 208.939.9033 Fax: 208.514.1422
www.IronEagleRE.com Michael.Hon@IronEagleRE.com

Thursday, January 19, 2012

REAL ESTATE: Foreclosure activity subsides in December

The December results surprise experts, but they expect the numbers to pick up in 2012 after months of delays
BY LESLIE BERKMAN STAFF WRITER lberkman@pe.com
Published: 12 January 2012 09:59 PM

AText Size
After surging in November, foreclosure activity subsided in Riverside and San Bernardino counties last month.
Some analysts, including those at RealtyTrac, the research company that Wednesday released the year-end housing data, said the December results were surprising. But they continued to predict that after a year of delays due to regulator intervention, a larger wave of foreclosures will hit the U.S. and Inland Southern California in 2012.
“I do expect we will see an increase in foreclosure activity across the country, including the Inland Empire, as (financial institutions) begin foreclosure proceedings on seriously delinquent loans,” said Rick Sharga, who recently was an official at Irvine-based RealtyTrac and now serves as executive vice president of Carrington Holding Co., a mortgage and real estate investment firm.
Other experts counter that given the improving economy, they don’t expect an increase in foreclosures this year. “The economy is getting better, employment is picking up, delinquencies are down. There is nothing that points to any giant wave of foreclosures coming down the pike,” said Chris Thornberg, founding economist with Beacon Economics. He added that although he expects the volume of foreclosures will be lower this year than last, it still will be historically high.
Foreclosure activity in December was subdued by the usual holiday foreclosure moratoriums and snowstorms, said Sharga. But the downturn last month was particularly pronounced, nationally reaching a 49-month low in foreclosure-related filings — including notices of default, trustee sales and bank repossessions.
In Inland Southern California, notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, dropped 44 percent from November to December.
“I think we are seeing a little of the calm before the storm,” said Sharga. He believes foreclosures would have increased rather than declined last year if the robo-signing controversy had not disrupted the process, prompting banks to pull back until they could make sure they were in legal compliance.
“There were strong signs in the second half of 2011 that lenders are finally beginning to push through some of the delayed foreclosures in select local markets. We expect that trend to continue this year, boosting foreclosure activity for 2012 higher than it was in 2011, though still below the peak …,” said RealtyTrac executive officer Brandon Moore in a statement.
In Riverside and San Bernardino counties, there were a combined 75,559 foreclosure filings in 2011, which was more than a 25 percent drop from 2010 and 40 percent drop from 2009. Since the foreclosure crisis started in 2007, 175,895 homes have been repossessed by lenders in the two-county region, said RealtyTrac analyst Daren Blomquist. Nationwide the number of bank-repossessed homes has reached 4million.
Chapman University Economist Esmael Adibi said he is not expecting a surge of foreclosure activity this year although he expects it will remain roughly as much of a problem as it was in 2011. If the Inland economy continues to revive at the pace it has in recent months, he said, it will help some people avoid foreclosure and help others purchase bank-repossessed homes that come on the market.
Pete Nyiri, a broker of bank-owned homes in western Riverside and San Bernardino counties, said, “We are seeing multiple offers on single-family homes. Right now we are not begging for buyers. We have plenty.” He said sales could be stronger if he had more homes to sell.


The Iron Eagle Realty Team's mission is to assist you, our client, in the sale and acquisition of real estate properties in the state of Idaho, specifically the Boise Idaho Real Estate Market. Whether you are buying or selling a home, whether it is a foreclosure, short sale or equity property, we handle our customers and clients with empathy and honest truths so they can make informed decisions as they advance in the process of buying and selling real estate that meet specific needs.
PS: We've Helped More Buyers and Sellers than 99.8% of any Local Realtor

Click Here to Search 24/7 for The Best Real Estate Deals in Boise!
Click Here to Download Our Free "Selling Your Home" Pre-Listing Plan!
Click Here to Pre-Qualify for a Loan Online!

IERT logo
Regards, Michael Hon, REALTOR®
CEO, The Iron Eagle Realty Team
Associate Broker, Silvercreek Realty Group
Certified Short Sale Specialist®
Investment Property Consultant
Direct: 208.919.0458 Office: 208.939.9033 Fax: 208.514.1422
www.IronEagleRE.com Michael.Hon@IronEagleRE.com

Monday, January 16, 2012

Housing outlook is more upbeat - USA Today

By Julie Schmit, USA TODAY

Optimism is building that the housing industry is nearing a bottom — finally.

Home sales and home building are forecast to rise this year after sliding steeply the past five years in housing's worst downturn since the Great Depression.
Recovery is expected to be slow, and home prices are widely expected to fall this year. But investors are betting on the start of an upturn, bidding up home builder stocks and causing them to outperform the broader stock market.
Chief executives are more positive. JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon said last week that housing is near its bottom but could stay there a year. Stuart Miller, CEO of home builder Lennar, said the market has started to stabilize because of low prices and record-low interest rates.
Market researcher RBC Capital Markets has also turned from a "bearish" view on housing to saying that 2012 "will mark a step in the right direction."

Many economists expect home prices to fall more this year because of foreclosures and other properties sold at very low prices.
As foreclosures pick up this year, "prices will drop," says Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist. He says home prices won't bottom until later in 2012 or next year.
On average, prices have fallen by about a third since 2006.
"This year will feel a lot better to builders, investors and real estate agents than to consumers," says Jed Kolko, economist for real estate website Trulia.
Housing's outlook is brightening with signs of a better economy. Last month, U.S. employers added 200,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%, lowest in nearly three years.
While an economic shock could derail progress, "there's now more evidence of improvement in the economy, and housing will follow the economy," says David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. More improvement is expected for:

•Sales. Existing home sales will rise 12% this year after a 2% increase last year, and new home sales, coming off a horrid year, will jump 74% this year, Moody's Analytics predicts.
November's existing home sales hit their highest mark in 10 months, and new home sales were the year's second best, IHS Global Insight says.

•Construction. Single-family housing starts will rise 37% this year, Moody's predicts, after falling 9% last year.

Home builder stocks are on a run. The S&P 1500 homebuilding index is up 38% since mid-October, vs. 7% for the S&P 500.

The Iron Eagle Realty Team's mission is to assist you, our client, in the sale and acquisition of real estate properties in the state of Idaho, specifically the Boise Idaho Real Estate Market. Whether you are buying or selling a home, whether it is a foreclosure, short sale or equity property, we handle our customers and clients with empathy and honest truths so they can make informed decisions as they advance in the process of buying and selling real estate that meet specific needs.
PS: We've Helped More Buyers and Sellers than 99.8% of any Local Realtor

Click Here to Search 24/7 for The Best Real Estate Deals in Boise!
Click Here to Download Our Free "Selling Your Home" Pre-Listing Plan!
Click Here to Pre-Qualify for a Loan Online!

IERT logo
Regards, Michael Hon, REALTOR®
CEO, The Iron Eagle Realty Team
Associate Broker, Silvercreek Realty Group
Certified Short Sale Specialist®
Investment Property Consultant
Direct: 208.919.0458 Office: 208.939.9033 Fax: 208.514.1422
www.IronEagleRE.com Michael.Hon@IronEagleRE.com

Friday, January 13, 2012

Non-Distressed Property Prices 30 Pct Less than Distressed Since Market Peak

An interesting repost from LoanRateUpdate

January 13, 2012 (Chris Moore)

Home prices continued to follow normal seasonal trends in November, falling another 1.4 percent from the previous month according to CoreLogic’s November Home Price Index (HPI). November’s price decline follows a 1.3 percent decline in October and is the fourth consecutive month that home prices have fallen.

Including distressed property sales, home prices in November were 4.3 percent lower than in November of last year. It was the first monthly increase in year-over-year prices since April. This follows a revised decline in annual home prices of 3.7 percent in October which had been part of a seven month streak in which year-over-year home prices declined in each successive month.

In September, the year-over-year price difference, including distressed properties, was -3.8 percent, in August it was -4.4 percent, in July it was -4.8 percent, in June it was -6.0 percent, in May it was -7.4 percent and in April the annual price difference was -7.5 percent.

The impact that distressed property sales have had on housing prices since the beginning of the housing crisis has been significant. In November, the difference in year-over-year prices would have only been 0.6 percent lower if distressed property sales were excluded.

Since the market peak in April 2006, home prices have declined 32.8 percent when including distressed property sales and when excluding distressed property sales, home prices have dropped 23.1 percent since the market peak, a difference of 29.5 percent.

CoreLogic defines distressed property sales as short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, stated, “With one month of data left to report, it appears that the healthy, non-distressed market will be very modestly down in 2011. Distressed sales continue to put downward pressure on prices, and is a factor that must be addressed in 2012 for a housing recovery to become a reality.”

Seventy-seven out of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) experienced year-over-year price declines in November, which was three less than the revised amount reported in October.

The five states with the highest year-over-year (YOY) appreciation including distressed sales were: Vermont (+4.3 percent), South Carolina (+2.8 percent), District of Columbia (+2.1 percent), Nebraska (+1.9 percent) and New York (+1.7 percent). In October, those states were: West Virginia (+4.8 percent), South Dakota (+3.1 percent), New York (+3.0 percent), District of Columbia (+2.4 percent) and Alaska (+2.1 percent).

The five states with the greatest YOY depreciation including distressed sales were: Nevada (-11.2 percent), Illinois (-9.7 percent), Minnesota (-7.8 percent), Georgia (-7.7 percent) and Ohio (-7.2 percent). In October, those states were Nevada (-12.1 percent), Illinois (-9.4 percent), Arizona (-8.1 percent), Minnesota (-7.9 percent) and Georgia (-7.3 percent).

The five states with the highest YOY appreciation excluding distressed sales were: Maine (+4.9 percent), South Carolina (+4.9 percent), Montana (+3.8 percent), Indiana (+3.3 percent) and Louisiana (+2.4 percent). In October, those states were: South Carolina (+4.6 percent), Maine (+3.1 percent), New York (+3.1 percent), Alaska (+2.9 percent) and Kansas (+2.8 percent).

The five states with the greatest YOY depreciation excluding distressed sales were: Nevada (-8.8 percent), Arizona (-4.9 percent), Minnesota (-4.7 percent), Idaho (-4.1 percent) and Georgia (-3.6 percent). In October, those states were: Nevada (-8.8 percent), Arizona (-7.0 percent), Minnesota (-5.7 percent), Delaware (-3.9 percent) and Georgia (-3.6 percent).

The Iron Eagle Realty Team's mission is to assist you, our client, in the sale and acquisition of real estate properties in the state of Idaho, specifically the Boise Idaho Real Estate Market. Whether you are buying or selling a home, whether it is a foreclosure, short sale or equity property, we handle our customers and clients with empathy and honest truths so they can make informed decisions as they advance in the process of buying and selling real estate that meet specific needs.
PS: We've Helped More Buyers and Sellers than 99.8% of any Local Realtor

Click Here to Search 24/7 for The Best Real Estate Deals in Boise!
Click Here to Download Our Free "Selling Your Home" Pre-Listing Plan!
Click Here to Pre-Qualify for a Loan Online!

IERT logo
Regards, Michael Hon, REALTOR®
CEO, The Iron Eagle Realty Team
Associate Broker, Silvercreek Realty Group
Certified Short Sale Specialist®
Investment Property Consultant
Direct: 208.919.0458 Office: 208.939.9033 Fax: 208.514.1422
www.IronEagleRE.com Michael.Hon@IronEagleRE.com

Thursday, January 05, 2012

Many homeowners are unaware of how foreclosure, loan modification and short sale affect their credit score in Idaho? Here are some approximate rules of thumb but each homeowners situation is is different so these are not in concrete.

Overview on affect on credit:

Foreclosure - A foreclosure can drop scores from 50-250 points and what is really interesting is the difference on the loss of points depends on how much you have to lose, for example, if someone has a 750 credit score, they could drop 250 points but someone with a 600 score may only lose 100 points for the same thing. If a deficiency judgment or tax lien is filed in connection with a foreclosure, credit scores can drop an additional 100 points. It may be 5 - 7 years before you can acquire another home loan.

Short sale

Paid as agreed won't hurt score as long as payments were kept current.
Unrated may drop a few points in addition to the drop because of the lates.
Paid settlement may drop the score by 50-125 points in addition to lates.
Charge off with a collectible balance may drop 100-150 in addition to lates, in this instance scores will not start to recover until the charged off balance is paid.
Judgment for deficiency amount - if lender files a judgment in addition to the charge off-scores can drop an additional 100 points from this, most severe impact on scores and credit.
It may be 2 - 3 years before you can acquire another home loan.

Deed in Lieu

Paid as agreed - scores will have already dropped about 100 points due to default in payments, but if this is reported, the borrower will be able to purchase another home in a shorter period of time.
Paid settlement - credit can drop 75/100 points in addition to the delinquent payments.
Foreclosure - scores drop 100-150 points in addition to the delinquent payments.
It may be 2 - 3 years before you can acquire another home loan. Most lenders want you to short sale your home first before they will consider you for a deed in lieu.

Loan Modification

Lenders may report it as an "account in partial payment plan", this can drop someone's scores by as much as 150 points in addition to lates. So it is important to make every effort to negotiate with the lender on how they will report: Not to report it in a partial payment plan. Remove any lates incurred during the waiting period of when the request for loan modification was made to the time of completion. Document every move they make, phone calls, etc. on their efforts to remain current on their payment.

We hope this helps you in making the right decision for you and your family. Please call us at 208 939 9033 if you need any further assistance.

The Iron Eagle Realty Team's mission is to assist you, our client, in the sale and acquisition of real estate properties in the state of Idaho, specifically the Boise Idaho Real Estate Market. Whether you are buying or selling a home, whether it is a foreclosure, short sale or equity property, we handle our customers and clients with empathy and honest truths so they can make informed decisions as they advance in the process of buying and selling real estate that meet specific needs.
PS: We've Helped More Buyers and Sellers than 99.8% of any Local Realtor

Click Here to Search 24/7 for The Best Real Estate Deals in Boise!
Click Here to Download Our Free "Selling Your Home" Pre-Listing Plan!
Click Here to Pre-Qualify for a Loan Online!

IERT logo
Regards, Michael Hon, REALTOR®
CEO, The Iron Eagle Realty Team
Associate Broker, Silvercreek Realty Group
Certified Short Sale Specialist®
Investment Property Consultant
Direct: 208.919.0458 Office: 208.939.9033 Fax: 208.514.1422
www.IronEagleRE.com Michael.Hon@IronEagleRE.com

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